Unit 5 The Role of Hidden Psychological Traps in Decision Making

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Picture Pause: It is in Unit 5 where we discover how our brains inherently make our decisions based on routines rather than the actual facts and events surrounding the decision.

Overview

In Unit 5, we will explore ways that our norms get trapped in our brain and it is those routines, then, that drive our decisions. When we have “always done it that way”, we are prone to think that is the best way to do it, even though circumstances, information, and advice will say something different.

Business decisions can be caught in this type of decision making.

The US based Lynden company has been approached by a supplier, the Canadian based Vancouver International to form a partnership. The Lynden company quickly denied the request. They had never conducted international business in the past and see no need to start now. They are content with the status quo and therefore closed to considering the possibilities of international expansion.

This personal story may sound familiar.

Jane was driving to the grocery store but was admittedly, preoccupied; she had just lost her job. Heading home, Jane stopped at the stop sign as she always did, prepared to make the turn, but then she heard the crash. She could not believe she had turned right in front of another car! Jane’s overconfidence in her usual routine at the stop sign that blinded her to the reality of the oncoming car. She simply did not see it.

There are reasons for blocking the reality of the circumstances or being closed to new ideas. Entreprenur.com has some thoughts on what happens when it is our emotions that trap us into making unwise or short-sighted decisions.

  • People inherently fear change. When we are in a time of change, we will seek out ways to protect ourselves and, either consciously or subconsciously, we will discredit the change and give undue praise for our current situation. This saying may apply: “The devil that you know is better than the devil that you don’t.” Fear of change can keep us stuck doing the same old thing, even if it may not have optimal results.
  • Think about a decision you made because you feared change.
  • In social media, it’s easy to connect with people who reflect our views. It is calming, reassuring, and just makes us feel good. While in the “feel good” place, we can lack the incentive needed to seek out people with differing opinions. It limits our opportunities to learn from new ideas, being creative, and “thinking outside the box”. It also makes us think we are right just because there are others who give us a thumbs up.
  • What emotions have you experienced while of social media? Perhaps anger at a friends’ post? How did that impact your decision or attitude? Was it helpful?

Social media can also be a medium where people disagree with you through verbal or emoji comments. It is announced to everyone reading the post. The hurt of the words can make us depressed and a loss of confidence. Traps are set when we are approached with information and make a decision, even though we know it is not true, or from an unreliable source.

Let’s continue with finding out the details surrounding these traps and discover ways to teach our brains to stay open and aware of the facts surrounding our decisions. Much of the information presented is strongly or exactly taken from the Unit 5 text, “The hidden traps of decision making.” The Unit 5 narrative is intended to serve as a summary and study guide to support an understanding of the decision traps, as well as a preparation for observing and identifying how the traps influenced their decision making.

Topics

This unit is divided into the following topics:

  1. What are the hidden psychological traps
  2. The cause and description of the hidden traps
  3. Discover ways to avoid the traps

Learning Outcomes

When you have completed this unit, you should be able to:

  • Describe the impact of psychological traps on decision making
  • Identify different types of traps, what they are and how they show up in decision making
  • Examine ways to guard against traps

Activity Checklist

Here is a checklist of learning activities you will benefit from in completing this unit. You may find it useful for planning your work.

  • Activity 5.1: Read and Reflect from the Textbook: HBR On Making Smart Decisions, The hidden traps for decision making
  • Activity 5.2: Do an online search to learn more about psychological or hidden traps
  • Activity 5.3: Complete the worksheet table on hidden traps
  • Activity 5.4:
    • Watch the movie 12 Angry Men.
    • With your Group, discuss the questions in the Movie Guide
  • Activity 5.5: Watch TED Talk & Reflect: Are We in Control of our Own Decisions? Dan Airley
  • Activity 5.6: Drag/Drop Key terms
  • Assessments:
    • 12 Angry Men Case Study Paper (20% of course grade)
    • Complete Forum 3

Resources

Here are the resources you will need to complete this unit.

5.1 Psychological Traps - What are They?

Image by FelixMittermeier from Pixabay

Before making an important decision, prudent people will evaluate the situations confronting them but can still fall into one of the psychological traps of faulty thinking when making decision.

Some people are too optimistic and overconfident: They will overestimate success and underestimate the scope of potential outcomes. On the flipside, other people are cautious to a fault: They take costly steps to defend against unlikely outcomes.

Our reasoning abilities can be distorted and we unknowingly cater to our biases. We see this in a few of the highlights found in the 1998 Harvard Business Review “The Hidden Traps in Decision Making,” by John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney and Howard Raiffa:

  • We have a tendency to stick with the status quo, the way it has always been done.
  • We only look for evidence that confirms our preferences.
  • We are likely to throw good money after bad to defend our position and avoid admitting a mistake.
  • The way a problem is framed can influence how you develop decisions; we carefully phrase a report to uncover only the information needed to drive the outcome.

As you work through Unit 5, you will discover that we can’t always avoid the distortions ingrained in the way our minds work, but we can raise our awareness and build in tests to make our decision-making processes more reliable, and thus improving the quality of the choices we make.

The Brain Science of Decisions

  • The human brain’s inherent functions can sabotage our decisions. It takes enormous energy to consciously work through possibilities and risks, so the brain looks for shortcuts. We use unconscious routines, known as heuristics, to cope with complexity — and they normally serve us well. But because they are inherent, we are unaware we are using them and they can lead us in decision making traps.
  • Researchers have identified a series of flaws in the way we think when making decisions. They are hardwired into our thinking process, so we often fail to recognize them. This means they can undermine everything from relationships, problem solving, future plans, and our day to day decisions.
  • While we cannot entirely rid ourselves of these ingrained flaws in our thinking, we can learn to understand the traps and compensate for them. The best defense is awareness.

Research has revealed that we use unconscious routines to cope with the complexity inherent in most decisions. These routines, known as heuristics, serve us well in most situations. In judging distance, for example, our minds frequently rely on a heuristic that equates clarity with proximity. The clearer an object appears, we assume it must be close. This simple mental shortcut helps us to make the continuous stream of distance judgement required to navigate the world.

Yet, like most heuristics, it is not foolproof. On days that are hazier than normal, our eyes will tend to trick our minds into thinking that things are more distant than they actually are. Because the resulting distortion poses few dangers for the most of us, we can safely ignore it. For airplane pilots, through, the distortion can be catastrophic. (Hammond et al, p.2)

Here are a few heuristics that “serve us well” but they can also become our greatest enemy.

  • Our personality: A highly structured personality will have difficulty seeing beyond structure and consider creative possibilities. Our pattern is to see the world through the lens of black and white, right and wrong. In contrast, a creative personality will have difficulty seeing the detail in a situation with high structure while being open to innovation, creativity, and new ideas.
  • Culture: We see the beauty of our choices of food, dress, and celebrations within our own country. It is embedded in our traditions and family. When we visit a different county, we find these things strange. We automatically compare them to our own culture, missing the beauty offered in a new culture, missing the beauty of the new.
  • Loss: Whether it is a divorce or the death of a close friend, the loss will blur our vision of life. We inherently want things to be as they were before but know we must press on to new relationships.

Learning Activities

Activity 5.1: Read and Reflect

📘: HBR On Making Smart Decisions (Textbook): The hidden traps of decision making

Image by Arek Socha from Pixabay

Note that the Learning Activities are ungraded, unless otherwise specified. They are designed to help you succeed in your assessments in this course, so you are strongly encouraged to complete them.

5.2 The Causes of Hidden Psychological Traps and What They Look Like

Hidden traps are another way of describing psychological traps. They are simply embedded in how we see the world. Simply speaking, is part of who we are. We can, for the most part, function well in the midst of hidden traps. However, they can side-rail a decision into something we did not intend.

There are 8 hidden traps presented in the unit text, “The hidden traps of decision making”. The article explains the cause and meaning of each trap, as well as ways to avoid or get out of them. In Activity 5.3 you will be asked to complete a worksheet that will instruct you to dig deeper into the hidden traps.

As a summary:

When it comes to business decisions, there are no “no-brainers.” Our brains are always at work, sometimes without our conscious awareness, and sometimes in ways that hinder rather than help us.

  • Misperceptions, faulty assumptions and other mind tricks can influence the choices we make.
  • The higher the stakes, the greater the risk of being caught in a psychological trap.
  • Highly complex and important decisions are the most likely to be distorted because they involve the most assumptions, depend on estimates and receive more input from a variety of people.

Source: workingresources.com

Learning Activities

The activities for Unit 5 are focused on helping you gain a clear understanding of what hidden traps are and how to avoid them in decision making.

Activity 5.3: Hidden Trap Table

  • Make a table similar to the one below. Use the article: The Hidden traps in decision making as a guide.
  • While this is an ungraded task, you will need this information to complete your assignment this week.
  • The article describes 8 different decision making traps. For review, in your own words, give the definition and a way to avoid the traps.
    • Column 1: Name the trap
    • Column 2: Provide the definition
    • Column 3: Describe how to avoid the traps when making decisions
Name the trap Provide the definition Describe one way to avoid the trap
Anchoring Giving more importance than is reasonable to the first information we receive about a topic or situation. Always view a problem from different perspective and use the same criteria for each option.

Activity 5.4: Watch the Movie: 12 Angry Men

  • While watching 12 Angry Men, you will first of all notice that 99% of the movie takes place in only one room, and that it is all in black and white. But you will soon discover an intriguing display of decision making challenges. While it was filmed in 1957, the heart of the decision making challenges is no different today.
  • It is suggested you read the movie synopsis before watching.
  • Take notes on the various decision making challenges the characters face throughout the film.

**this activity will help you prepare for your upcoming graded assessment which requires you to write a paper on this film.*

5.3 How to Avoid Being Caught in the Traps

Photo by Conor Luddy on Unsplash

Our brains are always thinking, responding, and determining how to respond. Highly complex and important decisions are the most likely to be distorted because they involve the most assumptions, depend on estimates and receive more input from myriad people. The higher the stakes, the greater the risk of being caught in a psychological trap. These traps can work in isolation or in tandem.

A dramatic first impression may anchor our thinking, causing us to selectively seek out confirming evidence to justify our initial inclination. We then make a hasty decision, which establishes a new status quo. And as the sunk costs accumulate, we become trapped, unable to find a propitious time to seek out a new, possibly better course.

The best protection is awareness. Forewarned is forearmed. If you cannot eradicate the distortions ingrained in the way your mind works, you can at least build routines and disciplines into your decision-making process that can uncover errors in thinking before they become errors in judgment.

  • Forewarned is a realization that these hidden traps occur. Realize that the traps are hidden within most every decision process. Realize that the traps for each person are different because each person has a different personally, responsibilities, history, and influencers.
  • With an understanding of these things, we can become forearmed. We can instill systematic practices of seeking opinions that differ from our own. Instituting time frames to make decisions after all data has been gathered can allow time to process information outside of the pressure generally attached to decisions.
  • Meditation and praying for God to guide the decision can be invaluable knowing that God is guiding the process and wants the very best outcome for each of us. God has promised to give wisdom whenever we ask for it. (James 3: 13 – 18)
  • How do you prepare to make a decision? Do you use any of the practices just presented, or perhaps something else entirely?

Activity 5.5: TED Talk: Are We in Control of our Own Decisions?

Watching Airley’s TED Talk for the second time in the course, you will now watch it from the perspective of how hidden traps can drive our decisions.

Note the scenario-story Airley tells about purchasing the newspaper in print and/or online. What was the leading cause of confusion in the decision making process?

Activity 5.6: Key Terms Review

This is a review of the major hidden traps in Unit 5. Although you will not be evaluated on these terms, they will assist you in the upcoming course assignments.

Questions to Consider

After completing the activities above, consider the following questions:

  • Can we ever make a trap-free decision?
  • How can we identify when we are caught in these hidden traps?

Summary

In Unit 5 we have explored ways the brain hides aspects of the reality around us. Why? We want something to turn out a certain way, we don’t like the way it was presented, or we fear what will happen if we make a change. This happens to us personally or professionally. We do not have to get left as victims to these traps. Pausing, taking a step back, counsel from others, personal meditation, and gathering additional information can make the difference between what we consider a bad decision or a good decision. We are all susceptible to these ways our brains hide things from us. The authors of Hidden Traps pose a good warning in decision making, to be “forewarned” and “forearmed”!

Assessment

12 Angry Men: Movie Notes (read in preparation for assignment below)

The movie notes review the background of the jurors, and provide a review guide for the teachings of the course thus far. All of the items listed below can be observed in the movie. In identifying them, you will gain a strong foundation of the decision making basics covered in Units 1 – 5 which will help in future assignments, as well as personal decision making!

List of jurors: take notes so you can remember who’s who. You can also find lists of the jurors online.

#1 Foreman
#12 # 2
#11 #3
#10 #4
#9 #5
#8 #6
#7: Baseball game

Part 1. What impacts group decisions?

In the opening scene, the Judge was the leader.

What is the message you heard through his affect? How do you think it impacted the jurors?

How did these statements impact the discussion?

“I sat on many juries!”
“I guess we talk.”
“I believe he’s guilty”
“I’ve walked amount them all my life. They’re born that way.”

In the opening scenes, the decision process is impacted by the items below. How, and which jurors were involved?

  • Personalities
  • Background: What happened in the group dynamics when the topic of culture came up?
  • Emotion
  • Process: The process seemed so easy: to decide if the accused is guilty or not guilty. How did it become so complicated?

Part 2. Groups in Conflict

A significant part of group decisions is related to conflict. The course readings from HBR refers to many aspects of conflict. Listed below are some to those aspects. Define what they and give an example from the movie or your personal experience.

  • Emotional tagging
  • Pattern recognition
  • Affective conflict
  • Impact of personalities
  • Piecemeal perspective
  • Free for all
  • Advocacy

Conflict usually is a needed part of group decisions. Looking at the list below, identify examples in the movie.

How did the jurors turn from negative conflict to signs of positive conflict?

  • Candor
  • Openness
  • Dialogue
  • Cognitive conflict
  • Inquiry

Garvin and Roberto in What you don’t know about making decisions, HBR p 91-92.

What are these and why are they helpful in effective decision making?

  • Multiple Alternatives
  • Assumption testing
  • Well-defined criteria
  • Dissent and debate

Part 3. Hidden Traps of Decision Making

Hammond, Keeney, and Raiffa in Hidden traps of decision making (HBR p 1) claim that the way our brain perceives information by forming patterns that, in turn, shape our decisions. This pattern is call heuritics. These perceptions often trap us and we lose perspective; as well, we lose the ability to see things clearly. In the list below, define these traps and give examples of how they were viewed in the movie, or an example from your personal life.

  • Anchoring
  • Status quo
  • Sunk cost
  • Confirming Evidence
  • Framing
  • Overconfidence
  • Prudence
  • Recallability

Question for Consideration

  • How did the jury get past these traps in their process in making their jury decision?

12 Angry Men Assignment (10%)

Write a 3 - 4 page reflective paper based on the movie 12 Angry Men using the prompts below as a guide. Highest marks will be given for papers using critical thinking and analysis for each answer. Answers must be based on the movie observations and the teachings in HBR text and class discussions. Title page, introduction, conclusion and at Reference Page are required.

12 Angry Men is a movie with the sole purpose of making a decision. The movie, then, is about the decision making process. There are various decision models that are used in the movie. List the decision model that most impressed you as being necessary and effective. Describe why it was effective in process and outcome.

Advocacy and inquiry are always a part of an effective decision making dialogue. Describe the overall dialogue presented in the movie, as well as how advocacy and inquiry were used effectively and ineffectively.

Embedded in the jury deliberations were psychological hidden traps that impacted the jury decision making process. There are many types of traps but describe 3 traps that you observed in the movie. How and why did they impact the decision process of the jury and why. How could have they been avoided?

Finally, what and why is the thing that most stood out to you in the movie regarding decision making? How will the decision process demonstrated in 12 Angry Men impact your individual decision making and leadership development?

APA 7.0 is required. A minimum of 5 citations must be included as references from The hidden traps of decision making. Additional references are welcomed.

Note: When referring to the jurors, use the following format:  Juror #3.

Note the capital letter and spacing. Juror pictures, descriptions, and numbers can be found at this site.

Grading Criteria:

Numerical Grade (%) Criteria

  • 90 - 100
    A first-class paper (A+/A/A–) exhibits excellence in style, makes full use of the course content, shows striking originality and perceptiveness, and is written in clear, fluent, and technically correct prose.
  • 80 - 89
    A second-class paper (B+/B/B–) represents solid, above-average competence and achievement. In an essay of this quality, the ideas are sound, convincingly substantiated, and show some originality; in an otherwise strong discussion, expression might be inconsistent, incomplete in the use of evidence, or display minor weaknesses in style.
  • 65 - 79
    A paper at this level (C+/C/C–) is of average competence and demonstrates satisfactory but incomplete grasp of course material; ideas might not be fully developed or might tend toward vagueness, or the argument might exhibit problems in expression, organization, style, or mechanics.
  • 51 - 64
    A paper at this level (D range) indicates a weak or barely adequate understanding and use of the course material; organization and substantiation of argument might be deficient, or the discussion might be flawed by basic writing errors or problems in expression. A grade at this level warns that more energy and effort are needed—particularly to prepare for the final exam.
  • Below 50
    A grade at this level is a fail and indicates that the assignment is unsatisfactory either in content or expression (or both) and that it does not demonstrate a satisfactory understanding of the course material. However, a student who fails a first assignment should not abandon the course. The tutor’s comments should be read carefully. Please feel free to contact your assigned OL faculty if you have any questions. At this point, the student may wish to continue, or may choose to switch to a course more appropriate to his or her present level.

Checking your Learning

Before you move on to the next unit, you may want to check to make sure that you are able to:

  • Describe the impact of psychological traps on decision making
  • Identify the types of traps, what they are and how they show up in decision making
  • Discuss ways to avoid getting caught in psychological traps when making decision